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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."